Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
Maya Chen is a tech journalist and lifestyle blogger with over a decade of experience covering digital trends and cultural shifts.
